Hindsight bias: our tendency to reconstruct the past to fit with present knowledge. Also known as Monday morning quarterbacking. After the event, we look back to reconstruct how it happened, why it had to happen that way, and how we should have seen it coming all along. Under the influence of this bias, improbable and unpredictable events become not only probable but practically certain after they happen. Recall the o-ring Challenger explosion and the Columbia foam strike to the wing, both studies in hindsight bias. Think also of the pre-9/11 memo warning Bin Laden could strike in the U.S. In the aftermath, many concluded that we should have seen it coming all along, that it was inevitable. But was it? Like these notorious historical examples…